Compared to last fall, the outlook for the global economy has improved, mainly thanks to a calmer situation in the euro zone, a recovery in the U.S. economy and a belief that emerging countries will be able to land softly.
The situation in the euro zone has improved in terms of confidence and risks, but the outlook for the real economy is as weak as before. A setback with loss of confidence may come when the effects of ECB loans slow down and the focus is again directed at the Monetary Union´s incomplete design and the crisis countries' long-term ability to recover.
The BRIC countries slow down, which is natural because of the economic slowdown in the West and the former need to tighten up the economies to avoid overheating. The economic policies being implemented include protectionism, state capitalism, undisciplined budgets and shortages that create overheating. Corruption remains a major problem that is not sufficiently controlled.
There is a risk that the BRIC countries will underperform in the economic policy and will obtain a less optimal economic and social development.
Cecilia Hermansson – Swedbank